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Norteamérica será la líder en energía

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Analistas prevén un reordenamiento a escala mundial y mayor influencia en los mercados

La región de Norteamérica se perfila como el área con mayor influencia del mundo en el sector energético, por el volumen de reservas y producción con el que cuentan México, Estados Unidos y Canadá, coincidieron especialistas del ramo.

Miriam Grunstein, investigadora del Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE), dijo que de alcanzarse una integración comercial de los tres países se logrará un reordenamiento energético a escala mundial, logrando con ello beneficios para esta región y una mayor influencia en los mercados, de tal forma que las principales decisiones en el sector ya no serán tomadas sólo por los países de Oriente Medio.

Alertó, sin embargo, que nuestro país se mantiene vulnerable, por lo que será necesario que la apertura e  integración del mercado se haga en igualdad de condiciones y no permitir acciones ventajosas.

Arturo Carranza, analista de Solana Consultores, señaló que la Reforma Energética ha generado una importante expectativa de negocios por parte de las grandes empresas del sector en la región.

Alejandra León, directora asociada de IHS Cera, coincidió en que el Tratado de Libre Comercio fomentará nuevos nichos de negocio en hidrocarburos y electricidad.

Miguel Toro, investigador del Centro de Investigación para el Desarrollo AC (CIDAC), dijo que en materia de electricidad el intercambio de este energético podría incrementarse entre los tres países, como parte de la apertura comercial.

Norteamérica irrumpe como potencia energética

La  zona de Norteamérica, conformada por México, Estados Unidos y Canadá, se convertirá en un importante punto de influencia energético a escala mundial, por el volumen de reservas y producción con el que contribuyen.

Analistas del sector aseguran que Oriente Medio dejará de ser el centro geopolítico más importante en materia de hidrocarburos, ya que los tres países también cuentan con las ventajas que les proporciona el Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte desde hace 20 años.

Sobre el tema, Arturo Carranza, analista de Solana Consultores, aseguró que la apertura que permite la aprobación de la Reforma Energética, ha generado una importante expectativa de negocios por parte de las grandes empresas del sector energético en la región, no solo para el desarrollo de los yacimientos en aguas profundas del Golfo de México, sino también para la explotación de recursos no convencionales como el gas shale.

Sin embargo, dentro de la construcción de lo que serán las nuevas cadenas productivas, dijo que uno de los principales objetivos es incluir a las pequeñas empresas mexicanas, que hasta ahora han fungido sólo como proveedores de bienes y servicios, por lo que podrían contar con la oportunidad de ampliar su negocio e incluso convertirse en socios de las grandes transnacionales.

Destacó además las ventajas que proporcionarán las fronteras abiertas, principalmente para la construcción de nueva infraestructura para los hidrocarburos, como es el caso de ductos para el movimiento de gas, principalmente de Estados Unidos hacia México.

Miriam Grunstein, investigadora del Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económica (CIDE), coincidió en que, de alcanzarse una integración de los mercados de Estados Unidos, Canadá y México, se logrará un reordenamiento energético de proporciones globales, lo que generaría beneficios para esta región y una mayor influencia en los mercados.

Ello implicaría, agregó, que las principales decisiones en el sector de los enegéticos, en particular del petróleo, ya no serán tomadas sólo por los países productores que se ubican en la zona de Oriente Medio.

Las precauciones

Sin embargo, la especialista del CIDE dijo que, aun cuando México tomará una mayor relevancia y se fortalecerá con estas acciones, en necesario poner atención en las limitaciones que aún se tienen como país, ya que, en el caso de sus dos socios comerciales, cuentan con una vasta experiencia en cuanto a la apertura y competitividad empresarial, a escala nacional e internacional.

De manera contraria, insistió en que nuestro país se mantiene vulnerable, por lo que será necesario que la apertura e integración del mercado se haga en igualdad de condiciones y no permitir acciones ventajosas de las mencionadas naciones.

Por ello, consideró como uno de los puntos relevantes, que aquellas compañías que lleguen del extranjero, no busquen sólo asegurar el beneficio energético de sus propios países, dejando de lado las necesidades locales, punto en el que deberá poner especial atención el gobierno federal.

Similar a la industria minera

Alejandra León, directora asociada de IHS Cera, coincidió en que el TLCAN fomentará nuevos nichos de negocio en hidrocarburos y electricidad, los cuales serán evaluados por las grandes empresas.

No obstante, en el caso de las compañías canadienses, la apertura del sector energético en México permitiría generar un desarrollo similar al que se ha logrado en la industria minera, es decir, fomentará la llegada de capitales privados para la exploración, desarrollo y explotación de yacimientos petroleros o gas.

Mientras, en el caso de Estados Unidos, uno de los puntos significativos también podría ir ligado a la venta de gasolinas en México, toda vez que es uno de los puntos que permite la Reforma Energética.

Sobre la venta de crudo, entre las tres naciones, mencionó que la autosuficiencia estadunidense lo convertirá en el corto plazo en un exportador de petróleo ligero, por lo que competirán las productoras locales abiertamente con Canadá, que es hasta ahora su principal proveedor, sin
embargo, mantendrá su compra de hidrocarburo pesado mexicano para las refinerías de la costa del golfo.

Desarrollo en electricidad

En materia de electricidad, Miguel Toro, investigador del Centro de Investigación para el Desarrollo (CIDAC), dijo que el intercambio de este energético podría incrementarse entre los tres países, como parte de la apertura comercial que ya ostentan.

Sin embargo, no descartó que aquellas empresas que han logrado desarrollar importantes proyectos hidroeléctricos, de cogeneración y de energías renovables en Estados Unidos y Canadá, hagan lo mismo en México a fin de aprovechar el potencial natural con el que cuenta.

Para el investigador, esta tendencia fomentaría una mayor competencia que podría modificar las tarifas en beneficio de los usuarios domésticos e industriales, creando con ello una mayor competitividad en comparación al resto de las demás regiones en el mundo.

Los investigadores consultados coincidieron en que una de las ventajas que podría aprovechar México, tiene que ver con el desarrollo de tecnología, enfocada específicamente a la explotación de hidrocarburos, de acuerdo a la particular geología de la región, que los tres socios desde hace 20 años comparten.

Fuente: www.excelsior.com.mx

 

106 COMENTARIOS

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